On August 5, 2026, global precious metals markets entered a critical phase of positioning ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. At press time, international spot gold traded near $4,082 per ounce, down 0.3% from the previous session; spot silver was at $49.5 per ounce, with an intraday decline of about 0.5%. In the Dhaka local market, retail gold prices held around BDT 14,500 per gram, while silver stabilized at approximately BDT 180 per gram. The overall market showed a high-level consolidation pattern, with cautious investor sentiment awaiting the US Labor Department's upcoming July nonfarm payrolls report.
Nonfarm Payrolls Become Short-Term Focus as Gold Faces Directional Decision
This week, gold and silver prices entered a technical correction phase after a rapid earlier rally. On August 4, influenced by the US Dollar Index rebounding to around 103.5, gold retreated from above $4,100, briefly testing the $4,050 support level. During the Asian session on August 5, gold prices consolidated narrowly near $4,080, indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces.
Market analysts note that the nonfarm payrolls data will be crucial for gold's short-term direction. If the jobs data significantly beats expectations, it could reinforce expectations for further Fed rate hikes, boosting the USD and pressuring gold. Conversely, weak data could reignite rate-cut hopes, providing upward momentum for gold prices. The market broadly expects July nonfarm payrolls to add around 180,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.
Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Buying Provide Long-Term Support
Despite heightened short-term volatility, gold's long-term fundamentals remain solid. The trend of global central banks continuously increasing their gold reserves persists. According to the latest World Gold Council data, net central bank gold purchases reached 280 tonnes in Q2 2026, with emerging markets contributing the bulk. The Bangladesh Bank also recently announced it would raise the share of gold reserves to 8% of total foreign exchange reserves to counter taka depreciation and inflationary pressures.
On the geopolitical risk front, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and potential escalation of global trade frictions enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Analysts believe that against a backdrop of high global debt levels and a restructuring monetary system, gold's strategic allocation value is further highlighted.
Silver's Divergent Performance Supported by Industrial Demand
Compared to gold, silver's recent performance has been relatively moderate. On August 5, silver prices fluctuated around $49.5, below the high of $50.2 reached on August 2. However, the outlook for silver's industrial demand remains optimistic. The rapid development of the photovoltaic industry continues to drive silver demand, with the global silver supply deficit expected to widen to over 5,000 tonnes in 2026.
Regarding the gold-silver ratio, the current ratio stands at about 82.5, a historically moderate level. Some analysts believe that as economic recovery expectations strengthen, silver's industrial attributes could drive it to outperform gold, suggesting potential for further downside in the gold-silver ratio.
Dhaka Market Dynamics: Robust Physical Demand Keeps Premiums High
In Bangladesh, physical gold demand remains robust. Affected by the Taka's depreciation, local gold prices continue to rise, with Dhaka gold retail prices reaching BDT 14,500 per gram on August 5, up about 22% from the start of the year. Despite high prices, public enthusiasm for buying gold remains undiminished. Local jewelers report that the approaching wedding season has further boosted consumer demand for gold jewelry.
For silver, Dhaka market prices are stable at around BDT 180 per gram. With the advancement of local solar energy projects, industrial silver demand is also growing, providing further support for silver prices.
Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, gold has found strong support near $4,050. A break below this level could lead to a further test of the $4,000 psychological mark. Upside resistance lies at $4,100 and $4,150. For silver, $49 serves as short-term support, while $50 is a key resistance level; a breakout could challenge $52.
For Dhaka investors, given the increased market volatility, a phased position-building strategy is recommended to avoid chasing rallies or selling into panics. Long-term investors may consider gold ETFs and physical bars to hedge against currency depreciation and inflation risks.
Market Outlook: Nonfarm Payrolls Could Be a Turning Point
Looking ahead, the release of nonfarm payrolls data could mark a turning point for short-term gold and silver price trends. If the data misses expectations, gold could reclaim the $4,100 level and even challenge historical highs. Conversely, strong data could trigger a deeper correction. However, in the medium to long term, expectations of global monetary easing, the central bank gold buying wave, and geopolitical risks will continue to provide strong support for the precious metals market.
Dhaka Gold Bar Wealth Management advises investors to remain rational, monitor market developments, and allocate assets prudently. Whether gold or silver, both serve important safe-haven and value-preservation functions in the current uncertain macro environment.
